Nearly 10% of U.S. Properties Show High Likelihood to Sell, BatchData Finds
Across the United States, 9.8% of residential properties are identified as having a high propensity to sell in the near future, creating a vast pool of over 11.1 million potential listings for savvy investors and real estate professionals. A new analysis from BatchData reveals that the overwhelming majority of these opportunities, 92.3%, are currently off-market, signaling a deep well of inventory available to those who can identify motivated sellers before they list publicly.
Executive Summary
In a housing market defined by tight inventory and high competition, identifying future listings before they hit the open market is a critical advantage. According to BatchData's August 2026 BatchRank (Sale Propensity) Report, a significant segment of the U.S. housing stock shows signs of a potential transaction. The proprietary model analyzed 113,545,666 properties nationwide and flagged 11,174,938 of them as having a high likelihood of being sold soon. This 9.8% share represents a substantial market of potential sellers that extends across every state.
The most profound finding is the composition of this high-propensity inventory. A massive 10,313,896 of these properties, or 92.3% of the total, are not currently listed for sale. This underscores the scale of the off-market opportunity for real estate investing, where strategies like direct outreach and targeted marketing can unlock deals with less competition. In contrast, only 861,042 properties, or 7.7% of the high-propensity pool, are already on the market. The analysis also found that residential properties account for 100.0% of this high-propensity group, focusing the opportunity squarely on the single-family and multi-family housing sectors.
Geographically, the potential for deal-making is not evenly distributed. Texas leads the nation with 1,238,358 high-propensity properties, representing 11.1% of the national total. New Jersey and Illinois follow, with 1,032,914 (9.2%) and 996,219 (8.9%) properties respectively, demonstrating that opportunities are concentrated in diverse markets beyond the typical high-growth Sun Belt states. At a more granular level, Cook County, Illinois, is the nation's top hot spot, containing an unparalleled 767,920 high-propensity properties. This concentration highlights how specific metropolitan areas can serve as epicenters of potential real estate transactions. For investors and agents, these insights provide a data-driven roadmap to the markets, and even the specific properties, where the next wave of inventory is most likely to emerge.
Key Trends in Sale Propensity
The national real estate market is a complex mosaic of local trends, but overarching patterns in seller behavior provide a crucial layer of intelligence. By analyzing signals that precede a listing, BatchData's sale propensity model uncovers key trends that define the current landscape of opportunity. The data for August 2026 points to a market with a significant, largely untapped reservoir of potential deals, overwhelmingly concentrated in the off-market residential space. These insights are vital for anyone looking to build a pipeline of acquisitions or listings, revealing where to focus capital and effort for the greatest return.
A Substantial 9.8% of Properties Signal a Potential Sale
The headline figure from the latest analysis is that 9.8% of all scored properties in the U.S. fall into the high sale-propensity category. Out of 113,545,666 properties evaluated, a total of 11,174,938 were flagged by the BatchRank model as being highly likely to transact in the near term. This percentage translates into a massive number of potential deals, indicating that despite common narratives of a locked-up market, a substantial portion of homeowners may be considering a sale. This pool of over 11.1 million properties forms the primary hunting ground for investors seeking to acquire assets and agents looking to secure new listings. Understanding the scale of this opportunity is the first step toward capitalizing on it. The sheer volume suggests that in every region and nearly every market, there are homeowners whose circumstances or property characteristics align with the profile of a likely seller. For professionals leveraging advanced property search tools, this 9.8% segment represents the most fertile territory for prospecting.
The Overwhelming Dominance of Off-Market Opportunities
Perhaps the most actionable insight from the report is the status of these high-propensity properties. A staggering 92.3% of the 11.1 million properties identified are not currently listed for sale on the open market. This off-market segment consists of 10,313,896 homes, compared to just 861,042 on-market properties that also rank as high propensity. This lopsided distribution is a powerful reminder that the majority of real estate opportunities exist outside of public listing platforms. Investors who limit their search to the MLS are only seeing a fraction, just 7.7%, of the potential inventory that shows strong signs of being ready to sell.
This dynamic creates a significant competitive advantage for those equipped to find and engage with off-market sellers directly. These homeowners may be in the early stages of considering a sale, dealing with personal or financial pressures that motivate a transaction, or simply be open to an unsolicited offer that avoids the hassle of a traditional listing process. Techniques such as direct mail, digital marketing, and skip tracing to obtain contact information become paramount in reaching this silent majority. The data confirms that the largest and most accessible pool of deals is hidden in plain sight within neighborhoods, accessible to those with the right data and outreach strategy. Proactive sourcing is no longer just an alternative; it is the primary channel for uncovering motivated seller leads.
Residential Real Estate is the Epicenter of Activity
The analysis shows a clear focus on one particular asset class: residential properties. According to the data, 100.0% of the properties categorized as having a high sale propensity are residential. This includes single-family homes, condos, townhouses, and small multi-family dwellings. While commercial and other property types are part of the broader real estate market, the signals indicating an impending sale are currently concentrated entirely within the housing sector. This finding is crucial for investors and agents, as it directs their focus toward the markets and strategies best suited for residential transactions.
For residential-focused investors, this is a clear signal that their target asset class is rich with potential. Whether their strategy is flipping, building a rental portfolio, or wholesaling, the 11.1 million high-propensity properties represent a direct pipeline of possibilities. It also suggests that the life events and financial factors that typically precipitate a home sale, such as job relocation, family changes, financial distress, or an empty nest, are powerful drivers in the current environment. For businesses that serve homeowners, such as mortgage lenders, movers, and contractors, this vast pool of likely sellers also represents a significant customer base. The data provides a clear mandate: to find opportunity in today's market, focus on residential.
Regional Breakdown of Sale Propensity
While the national figure of 9.8% provides a broad overview, the true story of real estate opportunity is always local. The distribution of high-propensity properties varies dramatically by state and county, shaped by regional economic conditions, housing stock age, and demographic trends. An examination of the geographic data reveals hubs of potential activity in every corner of the country, from the dense urban cores of the Northeast and Midwest to the sprawling Sun Belt and the dynamic markets of the West. This regional analysis provides a guide for investors to allocate resources effectively, targeting areas with the highest concentrations of likely sellers.
Northeast: New Jersey and Pennsylvania Lead the Region
The Northeast presents a complex picture, with some of the nation's highest concentrations of high-propensity properties alongside states with far less activity. New Jersey stands out as a national leader, ranking #2 in the country with 1,032,914 high-propensity properties, which constitutes 9.2% of the national total. This positions the Garden State as a prime market for investors, far outpacing its larger neighbor, New York, which ranks #12 with 300,489 properties. Pennsylvania also shows significant potential, ranking #8 nationally with 462,461 properties. Within the state, Philadelphia County is a major hub, ranking as the #4 county in the entire U.S. with 171,286 high-propensity homes. Other notable states in the region include Connecticut, which ranks #16 with 225,955 properties, and Massachusetts at #17 with 192,086. In contrast, states like Vermont (#48 with 4,529) and New Hampshire (#43 with 19,760) have much smaller pools of potential sellers, directing investor attention toward the more concentrated markets in the region.
Midwest: Illinois and Michigan Dominate the Heartland
The Midwest is home to some of the most significant concentrations of potential real estate deals in the country, largely driven by major metropolitan areas. Illinois is a powerhouse, ranking #3 nationally with 996,219 high-propensity properties, making up 8.9% of the U.S. total. This is almost entirely driven by Cook County, which alone accounts for 767,920 of those properties, making it the #1 county in the nation by a massive margin. Michigan is another key state, ranking #7 with 470,320 properties. Its strength is similarly concentrated, with Wayne County (home to Detroit) ranking as the #2 county in the U.S. with 330,098 high-propensity homes. These two states represent major hubs of opportunity for investors. Other Midwestern states show more moderate activity; Missouri ranks #14 with 267,875 properties, and Ohio comes in at #15 with 244,873. Further down the list are states like Minnesota (#21 with 135,415) and Wisconsin (#30 with 80,543), indicating a more dispersed set of opportunities. At the very bottom of the national rankings are North and South Dakota, with North Dakota having just 2,358 high-propensity properties across the state.
South: A Region Rich with Opportunity Led by Texas
The South is a hotbed of real estate activity, containing the largest number of high-propensity properties of any region. Texas leads not only the region but the entire nation, ranking #1 with an enormous 1,238,358 properties flagged as likely to sell, representing 11.1% of the country's total. This establishes Texas as the primary market for sourcing potential deals. Florida follows as another key southern market, ranking #5 in the U.S. with 744,351 properties. The strength of the region continues with Georgia at #6 (488,980 properties), North Carolina at #9 (426,185), and Tennessee at #10 (405,086). This deep concentration across multiple southern states highlights the widespread nature of opportunity in the Sun Belt. Several southern counties also feature in the national top ten, including Shelby County, TN (#5 with 160,730), DeKalb County, GA (#6 with 157,209), and Wake County, NC (#10 with 132,277). While these states lead, opportunities exist throughout the region, though in smaller numbers in states like Louisiana (#19 with 177,799), Alabama (#28 with 94,999), and Mississippi (#36 with 40,411).
West: California Leads, but Opportunities Vary Widely
The West showcases a diverse landscape, with California dominating the region's sale propensity numbers while other large states show surprisingly modest activity. California ranks #4 nationally with 825,837 high-propensity properties. Although a massive number, its share of the national total (7.4%) is smaller than that of Illinois and New Jersey, suggesting that on a per-property basis, its propensity is not as high as some might expect given its market size. Contra Costa County stands out as a key market within the state, ranking #3 nationally with 203,028 properties. Beyond California, Oregon is the next-highest-ranking western state at #13 with 289,715 properties. What is more notable is the relatively low ranking of other major western states. Arizona ranks #20 with 172,134 properties, Washington is surprisingly low at #32 with 73,138, and Colorado is even further down at #38 with just 38,995. This suggests that investors in the West may find the most concentrated opportunities in specific markets within California and Oregon, while prospecting in other states may require a more widespread or targeted approach. States with smaller populations like Wyoming (#45 with 8,318) and Alaska (#47 with 6,580) naturally have the smallest pools of potential sellers in the region.