Over 10.5 Million Off-Market Homes Identified as Likely to Sell, BatchData Analysis Finds
New data shows 97.3% of the nearly 10.8 million U.S. properties with a high propensity to sell are not currently listed, signaling a vast and largely untapped pool of potential off-market deals for savvy real estate professionals.
Executive Summary: A Market of Hidden Opportunity
A staggering 10,837,443 residential properties across the United States are flagged as having a high propensity to sell in the near future, representing 9.8% of all properties scored. This significant segment of the market suggests a layer of potential liquidity that is not immediately visible on public exchanges. The most compelling finding from this analysis is the nature of this inventory: an overwhelming 97.3% of these high-propensity homes, totaling 10,542,157 properties, are currently off-market. This indicates that the vast majority of motivated sellers have not yet listed their properties, creating a substantial opportunity for investors and agents who can identify and engage these owners directly.
According to BatchData's BatchRank (Sale Propensity) Report, this immense pool of off-market leads is not evenly distributed. Opportunity is heavily concentrated in a handful of powerhouse states. California leads the nation with 930,026 high-propensity properties, accounting for 8.6% of the national total. It is closely followed by Texas, with 897,663 properties (8.3%), and Florida, with 766,505 properties (7.1%). This concentration extends to the local level, with major metropolitan counties like Cook County, Illinois (174,418 properties), and Los Angeles County, California (142,583 properties), emerging as the most significant hubs of potential transactions. For professionals in the real estate investing sector, this data underscores a critical strategic imperative: success in the current market hinges on the ability to look beyond listed properties and cultivate a pipeline of off-market deals, particularly within these high-density regions. The findings highlight that the most significant opportunities are those hidden from plain sight.
Key National Trends in Sale Propensity
The national real estate market contains a deep well of potential activity simmering just below the surface of public listings. An analysis of over 110,760,571 properties reveals key trends in sale propensity, pointing toward where investors and agents should focus their efforts. The data indicates that a substantial number of homeowners may be considering a sale, with the overwhelming majority of these opportunities existing outside of traditional market channels.
The Scale of Potential Market Churn
Across the country, 10,837,443 properties are identified by predictive analytics as having a high likelihood of being sold soon. This figure, representing 9.8% of all scored properties, is a powerful indicator of the market's underlying velocity. It suggests that for every ten homes, one exhibits characteristics that signal an impending transaction. These characteristics can include factors related to the owner's financial situation, the property's history, and local market dynamics. This nearly 10% segment represents a massive volume of potential listings and transactions that could enter the market, providing a continuous stream of opportunities for brokers, flippers, and long-term investors. Understanding the sheer scale of this high-propensity pool is the first step toward strategically targeting it. This is not a niche segment but a substantial portion of the entire residential housing stock, highlighting the importance of data-driven prospecting to capture a share of this potential business before it becomes common knowledge.
The Dominance of Off-Market Opportunities
Perhaps the most crucial insight from the July 2026 data is the status of these high-propensity properties. A massive 97.3% of them, or 10,542,157 homes, are not currently listed for sale on the open market. In contrast, only 2.7%, or 295,286 properties, are actively listed. This lopsided distribution carries profound implications for real estate professionals. It confirms that relying solely on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and other public portals means competing for a very small fraction of the total potential deal flow. The real opportunity lies in proactively identifying and connecting with the owners of these 10.5 million off-market properties.
These homeowners may be motivated by a variety of personal or financial reasons but have not yet taken the formal step of hiring an agent or listing their home. They might be contemplating a sale, be in the early stages of financial distress, or simply prefer a private, off-market transaction to avoid the hassles of a traditional sale. For investors, this represents a chance to negotiate directly with sellers, potentially securing better terms and avoiding the bidding wars common for publicly listed properties. Methodologies like direct mail, targeted digital advertising, and skip tracing to obtain owner contact information become essential tools for tapping into this vast reservoir of unlisted inventory. The data makes it clear: the most proactive and data-savvy investors are not waiting for deals to appear; they are finding them first in the off-market space.
A Singular Focus on Residential Properties
The current analysis reveals that 100.0% of the 10,837,443 properties flagged with high sale propensity fall into the residential category. This singular focus underscores where the predictive models see the most immediate and identifiable transaction signals. For investors, agents, and other service providers like roofing or solar companies, this means the primary arena for identifying motivated sellers is within the single-family, condo, and small multi-family housing sectors. Commercial, industrial, and other property types are not represented in this high-propensity group, directing prospecting efforts squarely at the residential landscape.
This residential concentration implies that the factors driving sale propensity are most pronounced among everyday homeowners and small-portfolio landlords. Life events such as job relocation, family changes, retirement, or financial hardship are powerful catalysts for residential sales. The model's findings suggest that these personal circumstances are creating a broad and deep market of potential deals across the nation's neighborhoods. While this excludes commercial opportunities from this specific dataset, it provides a clear and actionable focus for the vast majority of real estate professionals who operate within the residential sphere. The challenge and opportunity lie in segmenting this massive group to find the specific types of residential deals that align with an investor's strategy, whether it's flipping, wholesaling, or building a rental portfolio.
Regional Breakdown: Where to Find Motivated Sellers
While the national figures provide a broad overview, the true story of sale propensity unfolds at the state and county levels. The data reveals a significant concentration of opportunity in a few key regions, with certain states and metropolitan areas serving as epicenters of potential real estate transactions. Understanding this geographic distribution is essential for allocating resources effectively and identifying markets that over-perform in producing motivated seller leads. The patterns show a clear dominance by the nation's most populous states, but also highlight strong activity in several Midwestern markets.
The Southern Powerhouses
The American South is a dominant force in real estate, and this trend holds true for high-propensity properties. Texas ranks second in the nation, with an impressive 897,663 properties flagged as likely to sell, making up 8.3% of the U.S. total. This activity is heavily concentrated in its major urban centers, with Harris County (Houston) ranking third nationally with 112,324 properties and Dallas County ranking eighth with 73,179. Florida follows closely as the third-ranked state, containing 766,505 high-propensity homes, or 7.1% of the national count. Lee County, a vibrant market on the Gulf Coast, appears in the top ten counties with 63,830 properties.
Other Southern states also show significant potential. Georgia holds the ninth position nationally with 428,629 properties (4.0%), and North Carolina is tenth with 366,306 properties (3.4%). Further down the list, states like Tennessee (246,807), Louisiana (224,966), and Alabama (189,026) contribute substantial numbers, demonstrating the breadth of opportunity across the entire region. For investors, the South represents a target-rich environment, driven by strong population growth, dynamic economies, and a high volume of housing transactions.
Western States Lead in Volume
The West is home to the nation's top state for high-propensity properties: California. With 930,026 properties identified, it single-handedly accounts for 8.6% of the national total. This immense volume is distributed across its vast and varied metropolitan areas. Los Angeles County is the second-largest concentration in the country, with 142,583 properties. Further south, Riverside County ranks fourth with 91,175 properties, and San Diego County is sixth with 81,881. This clustering of three of the top six counties in Southern California highlights the region as a primary hub of potential market activity.
Beyond California, other Western states also feature prominently. Arizona ranks twenty-first in the nation but its primary hub, Maricopa County (Phoenix), is the fifth-largest source of high-propensity properties in the U.S., with 89,421. This demonstrates how a single, massive metro area can make an entire state a key market for prospecting. Washington also contributes a significant number, with 202,456 properties statewide. The sheer scale of these markets makes them essential for any large-scale real estate operation, though the high volume also brings intense competition.
The Overlooked Opportunity in the Midwest
While coastal states often dominate headlines, the Midwest emerges as a region with a deep and often underestimated pool of potential deals. Illinois stands out, ranking fifth in the nation with 474,498 high-propensity properties. Its strength is anchored by Cook County, which leads all counties in the United States with 174,418 properties. This indicates that the Chicago metropolitan area is the single most concentrated market for potential off-market deals in the country.
The trend continues across the region. Ohio ranks sixth nationally with 463,955 properties, and Michigan is right behind it in seventh place with 458,207 properties, with its activity centered in areas like Wayne County (Detroit), which has 78,769 high-propensity homes. Other Midwestern states with significant numbers include Indiana (280,988), Missouri (256,238), and Wisconsin (221,531). For investors seeking volume outside the high-cost coastal markets, the Midwest offers a compelling alternative. The data suggests these states contain a substantial number of homeowners who may be poised to sell, providing fertile ground for prospecting and investment.
Northeast and Smaller Markets
The Northeast contains several high-density markets, led by New York, the fourth-ranked state in the country with 566,066 high-propensity properties. Pennsylvania also makes the top ten, ranking eighth with 448,279 properties. These states, with their large, established housing stocks and major population centers, are critical markets for investors in the region. New Jersey also contributes a notable 207,536 properties.
In contrast, the nation's smallest states, many of them in the Northeast, naturally have lower raw counts of high-propensity properties. North Dakota has the lowest count among all states with 15,412, followed by Vermont with 15,850. Other states with smaller counts include Wyoming (22,032), Rhode Island (22,478), and Delaware (26,880). While these numbers are small compared to giants like California or Texas, they can still represent significant opportunity on a local scale. For investors operating in these markets, the lower volume may be offset by less competition, allowing for a more targeted and relationship-driven approach to sourcing deals. The data shows that while opportunity is concentrated, potential deals exist in every state.